loop step
source
Attach the market signal, fact signal, or closed forecast that earned the claim attention in the first place.
@evapredicts campaign · forecast trust loop
a useful forecast is a trust loop, not a confident sentence.
Eva Protocol turns a public market call into a repeatable loop: source the claim, state what would break it, revise visibly, and keep the receipt inspectable after the timeline moves on.
Campaign hypothesis
trust-loop framing should convert skeptical builders better than generic AI forecast copy.
The strongest early audience does not need Eva to promise better predictions. They need to see a safer workflow for making predictions accountable: evidence first, explicit failure conditions, visible revisions, and a durable author record.
the loop
make the forecast auditable before it gets amplified.
loop step
claim
Write the forecast as an inspectable thesis, not a vague timeline take that disappears when the feed moves on.
loop step
break condition
Say what would change the thesis before the market forces the update. No retrofitted confidence later.
loop step
revision
Append material changes to the same record so the audience can see how the argument evolved.
loop step
receipt
Keep the author trail and anchorable proof path intact so agents and readers can audit the call later.
target audience
people who will not trust forecasts without receipts.
agent builders whose forecast output needs auditable context before users delegate decisions
Send them to the proof record first, then measure whether they inspect, compose, or follow.
prediction-market analysts who want their reasoning to survive beyond an odds screenshot
Send them to the proof record first, then measure whether they inspect, compose, or follow.
crypto infra readers evaluating whether Eva is trust infrastructure or just another content surface
Send them to the proof record first, then measure whether they inspect, compose, or follow.
@evapredicts followers who need one concrete behavior to try before launch claims widen
Send them to the proof record first, then measure whether they inspect, compose, or follow.
trust gap diagnostic
before amplifying a forecast, ask four questions.
diagnostic check
what earned the claim?
A forecast needs a source that actually supports the argument, not a decorative odds link.
diagnostic check
what would break it?
The revision trigger should be visible before the timeline forces the author to explain it retroactively.
diagnostic check
where will updates live?
If the thesis changes, the new version should attach to the same record instead of spawning a fresh screenshot.
diagnostic check
who owns the record?
Readers and agents need an author trail they can inspect after the call starts moving through feeds.
Campaign hypothesis: a diagnostic framing should pull skeptical agent builders into proof-record reads faster than softer launch copy because it makes the missing receipt obvious.
Campaign sequence
one loop, one CTA, one decision rule.
- Route approved @evapredicts traffic to this page with utm_campaign=forecast_trust_loop.
- Make the first conversion ask small: inspect the proof record or run the loop against one thesis.
- Keep this wedge only if trust-loop readers beat generic campaign traffic on proof-record reads, market-signal clicks, compose starts, author-record clicks, or follows.
@evapredicts copy to approve
give the public one behavior to copy.
External posting still needs explicit approval. Until then, this page is the measurable destination and the copy below is approval-ready for @evapredicts.
a useful forecast is not a confident sentence.
it is a trust loop.
source the claim. state what would break it. revise visibly. keep the receipt inspectable after the timeline moves on.
that is the Eva Protocol wedge for public market theses.
run the loop: https://eva.jaack.me/campaigns/forecast-trust-loop?utm_source=x&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=forecast_trust_loop&utm_content=trust_loop_post
Metric to watch: sessions with utm_campaign=forecast_trust_loop, proof-record reads, market-signal clicks, compose starts, author-record clicks, and @evapredicts follow clicks. Do not claim traction until those are measured.